CDC data show U.S. overdose deaths still falling, down 11.5 percent in a year

Drug overdose deaths in the United States kept falling through the spring of 2026, according to the latest provisional figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics estimates that 66,478 people died of drug overdoses in the 12 months ending in May 2026, according to its provisional death count data, which the agency updated on Oct. 14. That is 8,616 fewer deaths, or about 11.5 percent, than the predicted 75,094 for the 12 months ending in May 2025.

The new total is roughly 41 percent below the highest 12-month figure in the dataset, a predicted 112,418 deaths for the period ending in August 2023.

The monthly series also shows a steady slide this year. The predicted 12-month total stood at 69,835 for the period ending in January 2026 and fell in each of the following four months, the CDC data show.

Fentanyl-type deaths lead the drop

The largest decline came in deaths involving synthetic opioids other than methadone, a category the CDC says consists primarily of illegally made fentanyl and fentanyl analogs. Predicted deaths in that category fell to 34,507 in the 12 months ending in May 2026, from 42,640 a year earlier, a drop of about 19 percent.

Deaths involving any opioid fell to a predicted 41,311 from 49,025. Deaths involving psychostimulants such as methamphetamine fell to 24,409 from 28,465, and cocaine-involved deaths declined more modestly, to 19,225 from 20,408. Heroin-involved deaths fell to 1,714 from 2,537. A single death can involve more than one drug, so the categories overlap.

Most states down, a few up

Most states recorded fewer deaths than a year earlier, but not all. New Mexico’s predicted 12-month count rose to 1,128 from 855, and Colorado’s rose to 1,847 from 1,674, according to the state-level figures. Nebraska, Wisconsin, Arkansas and Wyoming posted small increases.

Among the larger declines, Alabama’s predicted count fell to 783 from 1,021, Rhode Island’s to 186 from 281, and Delaware’s to 255 from 351. Ohio fell to 2,319 from 2,762 and Washington state to 2,528 from 3,186.

The CDC cautions that some state figures may be understated. Its methodology notes say Oregon has substantial delays in resolving pending death records, so recent trends there may undercount deaths, and that jurisdictions with more than 1 percent of records pending investigation may see provisional counts run as much as 30 percent below final figures.

How the numbers are built

The figures are provisional and subject to change. The agency publishes estimates about four months after the date of death, a lag it shortened from six months in 2022. Because many overdose death records are still pending investigation when the numbers are compiled, the CDC applies statistical adjustment factors to produce “predicted” counts; it says those models were updated in April 2026 using final 2024 data. The current update reflects records available for analysis as of Oct. 4.

The latest numbers extend a trend the CDC reported in the spring. In a May 13 release, the agency estimated 69,973 overdose deaths in calendar year 2025, down almost 14 percent from 81,313 in 2024, and described it as the third consecutive annual decrease. That release also said overdose deaths involving opioids, cocaine and psychostimulants all declined, while New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado saw increases of 10 percent or more for 2025.

Even after the decline, the 12-month total remains above 65,000 deaths, and the CDC notes that provisional counts may not include all deaths that occurred during a given period.